We published our predictions on the Coronavirus confirmed cases for 15th March in our previous post Coronavirus Italy statistics and predictions. Our predictions were 24734~25422, the actual number was 24747, the errors of prediction were -0.05% ~ 2.7%.
However it was not something worth of celebrating at this moment in this particular case. On one hand, the accurate preditions indicate that the development of Coronavirus in Italy had a pattern and we were good at finding this pattern. On the other hand, it also meant that, up to yesterday the 15th March, the Coronavirus situation in Italy were still following its historical pattern, which could lead to a bad closure of this pandemic outbreak.
If, in the next days, we don’t see abrupt down slopes in the day-to-day incremental curve, we might be looking at a “Gradually Contained Scenario” with a total confirmed infected population of 80,000+, overtaking China and becoming “number 1” before the end of March.
It’s not what we would wish. In this specific case, we’d rather be wrong at predictions and we look forward to seeing concrete, even better drastic, signals of improvement from numbers.Read More...